Market Intel · Vegas Edge
The market and the rankings do not agree, and the gap is the edge
A sportsbook posts a number with its own money behind it, and sharp bettors move it within minutes of news. A top 200 costs nothing to publish and nothing to be wrong about. These are the players where the two are furthest apart.
Where these numbers come fromThe largest disagreements between the betting market and the consensus rankings this week, with the data behind each one.
The market is higher
The market is lower
The largest meaningful prop changes since each line opened. Open to current, off the median book.
| Player | Market | Open | Current | Move | Books |
|---|
Every player market the books have posted for the games still to play, beside Iron Tuna’s own number for the same stat. The line is the median across the books quoting it; the over or yes price is the median de-vigged probability. Widest disagreement first.
| Player | Market | Line | Over / Yes | Iron Tuna | Edge | Open | Move | Books |
|---|
Players ranked by the probability of scoring at least once this week.
| # | Player | Opp | Anytime TD | Expected TDs | Basis |
|---|
The strongest market-implied volume: receptions and carries the money expects.
| # | Player | Receptions | Carries | Rush yds | Rec yds | Implied touches | Basis |
|---|
Every game on the slate, ranked by total, with each side’s implied points and how the line has moved.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Spread | Implied away | Implied home | Total move | Spread move |
|---|
Combinations of lines telling a broader story: a spread and a player market moving together.
Quoted where a book prices it, derived from the game lines where none does, and labeled either way. Off the median book.
Highest total on the slate
Largest move since open
Lines moving together
How to read a gap
- Read the implied points, not the spread. A spread and a total together give each offense its expected points, which is the scoring environment every skill player on that roster inherits.
- Compare like with like. The question is never whether a team is good, but whether the market rates that offense higher or lower than the projections already do.
- Buy the gap, not the name. A cheap player the market likes is worth more than a stud everyone already agrees on.
- Respect the clamp. One odd line is noise. A gap is a tiebreaker between players you already rate closely, not a reason to rebuild a roster.
Weekly Intel
The week itself: who is on bye, what the slate looks like, and every tool below in one place.
Rankings
The board re-ranked for the week ahead, at your league’s scoring rather than a stranger’s.
What They Aren't Telling You
What the disagreement adds up to across the whole board, counted rather than written.
Game Intel
Every game this week with its line, its total, and the points each offense is implied to score.
Waivers
What a claim is worth and what it will take to win it, priced in your league’s FAAB dollars.
DFS
The same market read, aimed at a single slate rather than a season-long roster.
My League
Your teams, budget and scoring, and every number on this site restated in them.
Iron Tuna prices players against the betting market first and the consensus projection feeds second. A sportsbook posts a number with its own money behind it and corrects it in public within minutes of news; a ranking carries no such penalty. When a priced market and an unpriced list disagree, the disagreement is the thing worth reading.
The week, the game states and the byes on this page come from the NFL schedule itself, not from the calendar: a week is current until its own last game has finished. Game lines and totals are the market’s, pulled on a schedule and cached, never fetched from your browser. Where a number is derived rather than quoted, the page says so.